As Mr. Trump considers using tariffs more boldly, a key question looms over the Fed: the extent to which any price increases will spur public interest in higher inflation, writes Nick Timiraos, the Fed's mouthpiece.
"Fed Speaker" Nick Timiraos: With December CPI and PPI data, forecasters expect December core PCE to rise 0.17% (nearly 2% annualized), which will keep core PCE at 2.8% annualized and reduce the 6-month and 3-month annualized values to 2.3% and 2.2%, respectively. (Jin Ten)
Nick Timiraos: The six-month moving average of US private sector job growth slowed to 108,000 in November, the lowest level in the cycle.
Nick Timiraos: Another week of US jobless claims data shows little change in the US labour market (by and large), despite typical volatility.
Federal Reserve Speaker Nick Timiraos wrote that Fed members discussed the possibility of slowing or pausing interest rate cuts at their meeting earlier this month if progress on reducing inflation stalled. According to Fed meeting notes released on Tuesday, officials believe that if the economy performs in line with their expectations, inflation will continue to decline steadily...
According to Nick Timiraos, the Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points as expected, and the decision was unanimous. The FOMC's statement changed little.
Nick Timiraos: The September jobs report could close the door on the Fed cutting rates by another 50 basis points next month and keep officials on track for a 25 basis point cut.
Nick Timiraos, the "Fed mouthpiece", recently wrote that the Federal Reserve voted today to cut interest rates by 0.5 percentage points, the first time since 2020, and it also chose a bolder start. Powell's decision to cut interest rates by more than most analysts expected a few days ago made...
Nick Timiraos, the Fed mouthpiece, said firmer housing inflation had driven a stronger-than-expected rise in core inflation, reducing the chances of a further 50 basis point cut at next week's meeting. Officials had already signalled they were prepared to cut rates at the meeting and Wednesday's CPI data would not change that. But some officials did not rule out a bigger cut than the traditional 25 basis point cut.
Nick Timiraos, the Fed's mouthpiece, wrote that July's CPI data cleared the way for the Fed to start cutting interest rates at its next meeting. With the labour market showing signs of potential weakness recently, the debate at the Fed's September meeting will focus on whether to cut rates by 25 basis points in the traditional way, or a larger 50 basis points. Wednesday's inflation data does not resolve that debate. On the contrary, the debate can...
Nick Timiraos: Recent corporate earnings reports show signs of volatile consumer spending and a sluggish housing sector, suggesting that spending could slow in the coming months.